Humanity must put carbon dioxide emissions on a downward slope by 2020 to have a realistic shot at capping global warming at well under two degrees Celsius, the bedrock goal of the Paris climate accord, experts said Wednesday.
A world warming beyond that threshold, experts warn in a commentary published in the scientific journal Nature, will face a range of devastating effects from deadly heat waves to mass migrations. due to sea level rise.
With 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warming so far), ice sheets that can lift the ocean tens of meters are melting faster, coral reefs are dying from heat stress, and storm surges are more damaging ever is attacking coastal communities.
The transition to cleaner energy sources is well underway and supported by a broad consensus on the need to reverse the threat of climate change - with the exception of the United States under the President. Donald Trump.
After rising for decades, global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels have leveled off over the past two years, at around 41 billion tons per year.
But even at this rate, the "carbon budget" of the planet, the amount of CO2 that can be released into the atmosphere without passing both.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) red line - will be used up in several decades, perhaps sooner.
"There's a long way to go toward destroying the world economy," according to the comment signed by the former U.N.Head of climate Christiana Figueres, three leading climate scientists and two sustainability experts from the business sector.
"When it comes to climate, timing is everything," they write.
The authors urge leaders to gather at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, on July 7-8 to highlight 2020 as a starting point for action.
But after Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, signed by 196 parties, and his refusal to join the climate consensus at the G7 summit in late May, such an outcome seems questionable. doubt.
Some standards will be met in 2020, according to the comment.
Renewable energy - mainly wind and solar - must account for at least 30% of the world's electricity supply, it said.Furthermore, there are no additional approved coal-fired power plants after that date.
In the transportation sector, electric vehicles - which currently account for 1% of new car sales - will account for 15% of the market by then.
Governments should also demand a 20% improvement in fuel efficiency for heavy-duty vehicles and a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide pollution per kilometer traveled in the aviation sector.
Still growing strongly, CO2 from the aviation industry accounts for about 2% of all anthropogenic emissions.
The experts write that greenhouse gases from deforestation and agriculture, which now account for about 12% of total global emissions, must be cut to zero within a decade.
They also called for concrete measures to limit carbon emissions from heavy industry, as well as buildings and infrastructure.
Ultimately, governments and banks must increase the number of "green bonds" tenfold. used to fund CO2 cuts, currently around $81 billion (€71 billion).)
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